How long does it take for earthquake clouds to appear? ground
The first person to suggest the term "earthquake cloud" was a Japanese politician and former mayor of Nara. He saw a very peculiar band of clouds before the 1956 magnitude 7 earthquake in Fukuoka, Japan. Then he noticed that as long as such clouds appeared, there would be earthquakes somewhere. So he called such clouds "earthquake clouds". Over the next few decades, Chinese and Japanese folk enthusiasts made some observations and summaries, believing that "earthquake clouds" are cloud signals released into the sky during the brewing stage of earthquakes. Its form can be a long and narrow cloud band, known as "airplane cloud"; or a radiant "fan cloud" band; or a parallel arrangement of "rib-shaped" clouds. Usually appearing in the morning and evening, it will appear in a variety of colors.
Regarding the generation mechanism of "seismic clouds", the first theory is the theory of heat energy and water vapor release. When the plate moves, a large amount of high-temperature and high-pressure water vapor will be released from the surface, and the water vapor will rise to form a narrow "seismic cloud belt" in the atmosphere. Another theory is that the geomagnetic field and electromagnetic field will change before the earthquake, so water vapor or dust will be affected to form an orderly arrangement of seismic clouds.
Many people use similar theories to predict earthquakes, such as Shou Zhonghao, a Chinese living in the United States. He has been predicting earthquakes for more than a decade by looking at the location of earthquake clouds on satellite cloud images. He claims to have successfully reported the December 2003 Dom earthquake in Iran. Some reports even call him someone who "understands the language of clouds."
"Earthquake clouds" have been a topic of concern for these people who spontaneously study earthquake forecasting for decades. Countless pictures of "earthquake clouds" claiming to have been taken before a major earthquake have been circulating on the Internet, and some people have calculated and compared the correlation between "earthquake cloud" rumors in various places and subsequent earthquakes. They claim that within a few days to a few months after the "earthquake cloud" appears, most earthquakes will occur in areas within hundreds to thousands of kilometers of the "earthquake cloud".
At the same time, "earthquake cloud" has been almost completely rejected by the mainstream scientific community. It is neither a meteorological academic term nor a geological academic term. It is not popular, and there are very few articles that seriously refute "earthquake cloud" with scientific knowledge. "Earthquake cloud" is almost only discussed by Chinese and Japanese folk. Not only do European and American meteorological departments not have a topic on earthquake clouds, but also the Chinese meteorological department and the Japanese meteorological agency. Supporters of "earthquake cloud" view this because of "one-sided denial and far-fetched interpretation of meteorological theories by meteorologists and seismologists." They still work tirelessly to collect and analyze information.
In the eyes of meteorologists and seismologists, the "earthquake cloud" is a "legend" that lacks theoretical basis and is full of folk imagination. At least it still has several unanswered questions.
1. How to confirm that the "earthquake cloud" is a "earthquake messenger" "lurking" in ordinary clouds?
For meteorologists, those so-called "seismic clouds" belong to the category of clouds in meteorology. In meteorology, the generation of related clouds is related to weather systems or local convection conditions, and their production requires a lot of energy. The banded "aircraft clouds" belong to the cirrus streak, which mostly occurs at the edge of the high-altitude jet stream and is stretched very long. This statement can be confirmed by the white and narrow cloud bands seen on the satellite infrared cloud image, which can be confirmed by comparing the weather contour map. The radiant "fan clouds" have some cirrus cloud bands and some altocumulus cloud bands, and the formation of this distribution is also due to the distribution of high-altitude wind fields. " "Rib clouds" belong to cloud streets. Since the organized distribution of atmospheric turbulence forms horizontally extending vorticity rolls, clouds form in the rising area and clear skies in the sinking area. There are a large number of ordinary clouds photographed in various countries on the Internet, which are difficult to distinguish from the so-called "earthquake clouds".
2. How can it be confirmed that such a large amount of heat and magnetic field will be released before an earthquake, generating high-altitude clouds?
Some people believe that the plate movement will release a lot of heat and water vapor based on the discovery of some hot groundwater gushing during an earthquake. This statement is difficult to convince, because atmospheric motion requires much more energy than people imagine. Imagine if the water vapor released by the surface could form clouds in the sky, would people living on the surface not have a more obvious perception? Dense meteorological stations are observing the surface and in-ground temperatures, and there is no data to confirm that the surface temperature systematically increased before the earthquake, let alone to an altitude of 6,000 meters to generate a wide range of cloud belts. On the other hand, convective clouds produced by local heating (whether you are geothermal heating or solar radiation heating) will develop into cumulonimbus clouds with precipitation due to their strong convective instability (up cold and down hot). Just like the afternoon thunderstorm that occurs in the hot and humid summer, it is a cloud generated by the local heating convection. Even if the water vapor released by geothermal heat can produce clouds, it should be this type of cloud, not cirrus or altocumulus clouds. Regarding the change of the electromagnetic field: The change of the geomagnetic field is not easy. Is there any data showing the change of the magnetic field before the earthquake? How can people's lives not be affected when there is such a strong change of the electromagnetic field near the ground? In addition, there is not enough observational support for the claim that the electromagnetic field affects the distribution of clouds. When the particles in the air are ionized, the electric potential field reaches a certain strength, which will release electric energy (lightning). If the change of the electromagnetic field affects the distribution of the cloud, should the discharge phenomenon at high altitude be observed?
3. How can the appearance and maintenance time of "seismic clouds" be matched with seismic activity?
It is said that "seismic clouds" often appear in the morning and evening, lasting from half an hour to several hours. Earthquakes sometimes occur after a week to two months. Since plate movements are releasing heat and electromagnetic fields, why haven't they recurred since then? If the surface releases heat, it should be day and night. Is there a night observation of "seismic clouds"?
4. If "earthquake cloud" is the end point product of earthquakes, why should we look far away?
The "seismic cloud" theory is vague on issues ranging from surface energy to the shape and duration of clouds. There are too many physical processes involved in going from the plate to the surface to the 6,000 meters in the sky. If "seismic clouds" can be generated, these processes should not be unpredictable. Why not pay more attention to the previous changes than the clouds in the sky? Even if "seismic cloud" proponents can successfully screen "seismic clouds" from ordinary clouds, find sufficient evidence from surface temperature and electromagnetic field observations, and confirm through simulations that the resulting clouds can be generated, and are relatively special-shaped clouds, there is another practical problem to face. From the comparison of the predictions circulating on the Internet and the actual results, the predictive significance of "seismic clouds" is also very limited. Many "successful examples" of so-called "earthquake clouds" on the Internet are: "earthquake clouds" appear in City A, and an earthquake occurs at B, thousands of kilometers away from A, a few days later.
